Polymarket has applied for a US license that would let its customers trade prediction markets on margin, putting real leverage behind bets on elections, sports and economic data for the first time. The company’s US affiliate, Coming Home GBA LLC, filed on July 3 to register as a futures commission merchant with the National Futures Association, according to filings reported by Bloomberg on July 9. A futures commission merchant is a firm registered to hold customer money and handle margin for trades on regulated derivatives markets. The filing is the clearest sign yet that Polymarket wants to compete inside the US rulebook, not around it.
Key takeaways
- Polymarket’s US affiliate Coming Home GBA LLC filed on July 3 for a futures commission merchant license with the National Futures Association, alongside NFA membership and swap firm applications.
- The license would allow margin trading, letting users open positions worth more than the cash they put up front.
- Approval from the NFA is not enough. Polymarket still needs the CFTC to sign off on rule changes permitting contracts that are not fully collateralized.
- Rival Kalshi already cleared the same path in March, giving it a head start in regulated leveraged prediction markets.
Published: July 10, 2026 16:05 UTC
What margin trading would change for Polymarket
Prediction markets let people buy yes or no shares on the outcome of a defined event, from a Federal Reserve rate decision to a playoff game. Today, a US-facing platform requires the full value of each position to be posted in advance. Margin trading breaks that link. It lets traders control a larger position with a fraction of the capital, the same mechanic that drives leverage in futures and options.
For Polymarket, the appeal is depth. Leverage tends to pull in professional traders who move size and tighten spreads, which makes markets more liquid and, in theory, more accurate. The trade-off is risk. Leveraged bets can be liquidated when they move against the trader, so a wrong call costs more than the original stake.
Why the CFTC decision matters more than the license
The NFA registration is a gateway, not the finish line. Coming Home GBA LLC filed three applications at once, seeking status as a futures commission merchant, an NFA member and a swap firm. Even with all three approved, Polymarket cannot offer leveraged bets until the Commodity Futures Trading Commission clears changes to its rulebook that would allow positions that are not fully collateralized.
That approval is not guaranteed. The CFTC is running a broad probe into Polymarket, the first high-profile inquiry into an event contract platform under Chairman Michael Selig. The review reportedly touches the company’s marketing, after a Wall Street Journal report that Polymarket hired content creators to stage trades and post fake wins. A regulator weighing an enforcement question rarely rushes to grant new trading permissions.
Chasing Kalshi in a booming market
Polymarket is following a path its main rival already walked. Kalshi secured clearance to offer margin trading in March, when the NFA granted its affiliate futures commission merchant and swap firm designations. That gives Kalshi a running start on the exact product Polymarket is now requesting.
The prize is a fast-growing market. Prediction market volumes hit $51 billion last year and are on pace for roughly $240 billion in 2026, according to CoinDesk. Wall Street broker Bernstein expects volume to reach $1 trillion by 2030 as the sector shifts from niche wagering into broad information markets across sports, crypto, politics and the economy. Leverage would let both platforms capture more of that flow.
A regulated comeback after a four-year ban
The filing caps a careful return to the US. Four years ago Polymarket agreed to stop serving American customers as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the CFTC, which alleged it had offered unregistered event-based derivatives. The margin application landed two days after the company announced a marketing campaign aimed at convincing regulators, policymakers and users that it can be trusted. The pattern is deliberate. Polymarket is rebuilding its reputation and its regulatory standing in parallel, betting that a compliant US business is worth more than an offshore one. It fits a wider 2026 trend of crypto-native firms seeking formal approval rather than operating in gray zones, echoing the SEC’s push toward clearer crypto fundraising rules. Polymarket did not respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment.
Frequently asked questions
What is a futures commission merchant license?
It is a registration that lets a firm hold customer funds and manage margin for trades on regulated US derivatives markets. Polymarket needs it, plus CFTC rulebook approval, before it can legally offer leveraged bets to American users.
How is margin trading different from normal prediction bets?
A normal bet requires the full value of the position upfront. Margin trading lets a user post only part of it, controlling a larger position with less cash. That amplifies both potential gains and losses, and positions can be liquidated if the market moves against the trader.
How does this affect Polymarket’s competition with Kalshi?
Kalshi already won margin trading clearance in March, so it holds a first-mover edge. Polymarket’s filing is an attempt to close that gap, but CFTC approval remains the deciding factor for both platforms.
