Nine anonymous accounts on Polymarket, the largest crypto-based prediction market, won 98% of more than 80 bets tied to U.S. military operations against Iran, netting more than $2.4 million in profits, according to a forensic on-chain investigation by analytics firm Bubblemaps. The findings, shared first with CBS News’ “60 Minutes” and made public on May 18, are now driving congressional calls to ban prediction markets on national security grounds.
A prediction market is an exchange where users buy and sell contracts that pay out based on real-world events, with prices reflecting the crowd’s estimated probability of each outcome.
- Bubblemaps identified nine linked Polymarket accounts that placed more than 80 winning bets on U.S. military actions against Iran with a 98% accuracy rate, profiting $2.4 million.
- The wagers landed on the exact dates of the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader, and the ceasefire announcement, often when public odds were low.
- The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a rule on April 30 barring senators from trading on prediction markets; House investigators may follow with subpoenas.
- Polymarket says it cooperates with law enforcement on suspicious activity and that “insider trading is not welcome” on the platform.
Published: May 22, 2026 16:00 UTC
How Bubblemaps traced the bets
Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman said his team used on-chain wallet clustering to link the nine accounts to a common funding pattern. Across more than 80 wagers, the accounts hit on outcomes the broader market priced as unlikely, including the timing of the first U.S. strikes against Iranian targets and the announcement of a ceasefire.
“This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” Vaiman told CBS News. “Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.” Bubblemaps confirmed the findings in a thread on X, publishing transaction graphs as evidence.
The 98% accuracy rate is several standard deviations above what random or even well-informed trading would produce on contracts that often opened at 10% to 20% implied probability. Bubblemaps argues the pattern is consistent with material non-public information about U.S. military planning.
Why this matters for prediction markets
Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain, meaning every trade is publicly recorded. That transparency is what allowed Bubblemaps to build the case in the first place. Vaiman has publicly credited the platform for the data access, even as the findings now threaten its political standing.
The case echoes a separate criminal matter the Justice Department disclosed earlier this year. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke is alleged to have placed roughly $34,000 in wagers on Polymarket tied to the U.S. special operations mission to capture former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, a raid in which he participated. He netted more than $400,000, according to the indictment reported by CBS News.
Congressional response is escalating
The Senate has already moved. On April 30, the chamber unanimously adopted a rule barring senators from trading on prediction markets, citing concerns about insider trading and contracts tied to violence, CNBC reported. Senators previously could trade on Kalshi and Polymarket without disclosure.
In the House, Rep. Chris Pappas called for subpoenas, and Oversight Chair James Comer has confirmed an investigation is underway, according to a release from Pappas’s office. Rep. Eugene Vindman is leading a separate effort to extend the Senate’s trading ban to House members, staff, and executive branch personnel through the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026.
A second bill, the DEATH BETS Act, would ban contracts tied to war, terrorism, and other violent events outright. Both proposals face uncertain timelines, and the House on May 19 declined to advance a broader prohibition despite bipartisan calls for one, per NPR.
What comes next for Polymarket
Polymarket told reporters it refers suspicious activity to law enforcement and that “insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified.” The platform has not commented publicly on whether the nine accounts identified by Bubblemaps have been banned or whether their funds have been frozen.
For the broader prediction market sector, the political risk is now concrete. CFTC oversight of event contracts remains the operative regulatory framework, but national security concerns introduce a new line of scrutiny that has not been factored into Kalshi and Polymarket’s growth assumptions. A congressional subpoena, if issued, would force document production on user verification, geofencing, and surveillance systems that have so far been opaque.
Frequently asked questions
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market built on the Polygon blockchain where users trade contracts that pay out based on real-world outcomes such as elections, sports results, and geopolitical events. All trades are recorded on-chain, which makes wallet activity publicly auditable.
Is the Bubblemaps finding proof of insider trading?
No. Bubblemaps presents statistical and on-chain evidence of a pattern that is extremely improbable absent inside information. Establishing that a specific person traded on material non-public information from a government source would require law enforcement investigation and disclosure of the wallet holders’ identities.
How would a prediction market ban affect crypto more broadly?
A targeted ban on event contracts tied to war or terrorism would primarily hit Polymarket and Kalshi. A wider ban on prediction markets would set a precedent for the CFTC and Congress to restrict on-chain financial products, which DeFi advocates have warned could spread to other categories.
